Despite what some may think, the Chandler housing market is very strong right now. Activity is still sluggish, but inventory is tight, home prices are up, and homes are selling faster than they were this time last year. Buyers are currently facing stiff competition for in-demand properties, and about a third of listings are selling for more than the asking price (a 15% increase over last year).
That said, interest rates continue to take a toll on buyers’ budgets, and demand is still down year-over-year. But there are fewer sellers in the market too, which means fewer listings for buyers to choose from. So even with less demand and higher interest rates, the supply-demand balance remains tight, keeping prices high and sellers in control. Let’s break it down!
A slow winter and steady rebound
When interest rates first went up, demand across the US slowed, and the constant upward pressure on prices finally eased. Initially, from August to November of last year, prices didn’t go down, but they stopped posting wild gains. In Chandler, each month our median price was rising 3 to 12% year-over-year instead of 20 to 37% during the surge.
Over the winter, we experienced our first price correction, and this continued until early spring. Our median bottomed out at $475,000 in March, a 12% decrease from March 2022. But prices steadily rebounded, and by August the median hit $505,000, a 1% year-over-year increase and a 6% bump from March.
Home prices are high
Despite fewer homes being sold in September compared to August, prices in September were stronger. The median sale price was $514,000, representing a 3% downtick from September 2022 but an 8% increase from earlier in the year.
For perspective, prior to the pandemic Chandler’s median home price ranged from under $300,000 on a low month to $350,000 on a great month. At the time, those prices were “historically high.” Then prices skyrocketed, pushing us into the half-million-dollar club almost overnight. Although our current median is down 3% from last year, it’s still remarkably high and up a full 60% from September 2019.
Activity is down
We typically see market activity peter out in the fall, and then pick back up the following spring. This year has been no exception; in fact, the decline has been steeper than a seasonal adjustment.
In September, 176 homes were sold in Chandler, compared to 299 in September of last year. The represents about a 40% year-over-year dip in transaction volume. This comes on the heels of a relatively strong summer turnout; 742 homes were sold from June to July, compared to 856 the previous summer (a 15% decline, which was milder than September’s).
As we’ve seen, activity levels alone don’t drive prices. The balance of supply and demand does. If more sellers begin listing in the months ahead, prices will soften unless demand picks up to match supply. However, with winter on the horizon I expect the market to remain tight, and for prices to hold strong (or adjust slightly with the season).
Homes are selling fast
One of the best indicators of market competitiveness is selling speed. In September, homes took 34 days to enter contract after being listed, which is 13 days faster than last September. Earlier in the year, the average home in Chandler took 50-70 days to sell, depending on the month.
When demand was surging in 2021 and early 2022, homes were selling in as little as 20 days some months. We’re not back to that pace (and we shouldn’t expect to be for a while), but homes are selling much faster than they were when interest rates first spiked, and also faster than before the pandemic.
Summer buyers have more urgency than fall buyers, so I expect selling speeds to slow a bit as fall and winter progress. But even though there will be fewer buyers and they will be under less pressure timing-wise, they will be competing for far fewer listings. For this reason, prices should stay high and sellers should remain in the driver’s seat.
Bottom line
Real estate isn’t “booming” anymore, but Chandler is still a very hot market and sellers are still calling the shots. Higher interest rates continue to constrain demand across the country, but here locally prices are still high and homes are selling faster than they were last year. On average, listings are selling for nearly the full asking price, and well-positioned listings are selling even higher. This winter will be particularly opportune for sellers in Chandler, with prices up, inventory down, and buyers eager to secure a home.
If you have questions about the market or are considering a move, give me a call today at (602) 753-0177. I’ll provide a complimentary, in-depth review of your home and walk you through the right strategies for selling in today’s market.
